TIPP: Dead even race

This must be one of the most weird campaigns in history. Some polls show Obama with double digit gains (and not surprisingly those are the polls that are echoed by the media); yet, the daily tracking polls of several organizations show the race tightening, some within the margin of error (for instance Gallup's traditional model for likely voters shows Obama and McCain within the margin of error). The most surprising of all comes from TIPP. Its daily tracking poll, the poll that got it closest in 2004, shows a dead even race,

"McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics."

Winning California for McCain

Tonight, I went to the volunteer kickoff event for the McCain campaign in San Mateo County. There were about 300 volunteers who attended, and many of them had not been involved in the campaign previously. As one of the speakers joked, "There are so many people here it looks like a Democratic Rally." It shows you that the excitement about the McCain-Palin ticket carrying across the country has even reached the Bay Area.

I am really curious to know how close the race in California is. All the California polls I've seen are pre-convention. (If any has seen recent California polls, please let me know.) I heard that a recent internal Republican poll put Obama's lead in California at about 5%. Honestly, I would be surprised if it is that close, but I do think it could be single digits. And that means McCain is within striking distance.

The bottom-line for those living in California: Don't be afraid about wearing the McCain pin or putting a McCain-Palin bumper sticker on your car or putting up a yard sign. There are more McCain voters in California than you realize. McCain is definitely the type of Republican who can do well in California and maybe even win the state. And get involved with campaign! Any resources that the Obama campaign has to put in to shoring up support in California are resources that he cannot spend in swing states like Ohio, Florida, or Pennsylvania.

The speakers also spoke a little bit about ways to talk with undecided voters. The number one thing is to explain why you specifically support McCain. You may not know every issue, but you should have one or two specific reasons why you support McCain. And don't be afraid to draw contrasts with Obama, especially as it relates to the reasons why you support McCain.

The other thing that may help is to visit some of the conservative blogs which quickly respond to what is going on in the news to give you ammo when the Democrats attack McCain or Palin. Some good sites to go to are McCain Report, The Weekly Standard, and the National Review Corner. And of course, check back here regularly as we offer our opinion on why the McCain-Palin ticket is best for the US.

Nader, VPs and Polls

Media reports that Nader believes Obama will pick Clinton as his running mate. Why is the media still listening to this guy? I can't believe he has any insight into this. Although we can thank him for getting Bush elected in 2000, it's about time he should go off into the sunset. And yes, the antecedent of he is Nader, not Obama although there are times I wonder why the media is still listening to Obama.

It will be interesting to see who Obama does pick as his running mate. Supposedly it is down to Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Joe Biden. If Obama picks Biden, that would really emphasize Obama's inexperience considering how long Biden has been around. Biden's knack for talking just short of forever probably won't help Obama. Being from Indiana, I think Bayh might be the best choice for Obama.

Finally, a Rasmussen poll says that McCain leads Obama, 46-43% in Florida, which is excellent news. Ohio is really close as well, and nationally, the lead for Obama is just a couple of points. These are all excellent signs for McCain, but a lot can change over the next few weeks during the conventions. Remember in 2004, it was just after the RNC and DNC that Bush really got out in front of Kerry and never really relinquished the lead.